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Your Middle East/Analysis: Confining the conflict with Iran to the economic realm

18 May 2012versione stampabile

Philipp Trösser

Car owners are indignant about sky-high petrol prices and Israeli leaders paint a grim picture of a nuclear-armed Iran. But what is actually the likelihood of a disruption of world oil supply or even military action involving Iran?

While the past year has witnessed much tough rhetoric on all sides, none of the principal actors (the U.S., Israel, and Iran) at any moment during the crisis was in a position where military action would have been an unreservedly attractive solution. However, while reason always ruled out the military option, the possibility of irrational behaviour or human error always needed to be considered. Thus, the current renewed talks between Iran and the P5+1 are to be understood as the much needed valve to release pressure and guard against a violent escalation.

http://www.yourmiddleeast.com/features/analysis-confining-the-conflict-with-iran-to-the-economic-realm_6748